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In Reply to: Any Bets On A Winner In The Toshiba (HD-DVD) / Sony (Blu-Ray) High Rez Video Wars?... posted by Draz on November 27, 2006 at 08:53:31:
Blu-ray will win the format war, except it won't be as quickly as they thought.Keep in mind that Blu-ray is not just Sony. Many people get this wrong because Sony has put so much towards the format. There are over a hundred companies that are part of Blu-ray: Matsushita (Panasonic), Pioneer, LG, Samsung, Lite-On, Sharp, Mitsubishi, etc. NEC, at first solely an HD DVD supporter, is negotiating with Sony to make Blu-ray drives. Toshiba is the only HD DVD exclusive electronics company.
Blu-ray has more capacity now (50GB vs 30GB) and will have even more in the future (200GB is possible, but the potential is really for the computer side of the format rather than the movie side). It also has more bandwidth than HD DVD (54Mb/s vs 36Mb/s). That's really going to come into play in about a year when all of the tools mature along with developers' ability and familiarity with the format. This hasn't been emphasized enough, but HD DVD is going to have some problems in the bandwidth department.
Blu-ray has the exclusive support of numerous movie studios, while HD DVD only has Universal as exclusive.
The PS3 advantage is that it can grow not only as a game machine, but as a Blu-ray player as well.
Just 10 years ago there was a cluster-fuck known as DVD. Look at where it is now. No reason Blu-ray can't be even better.
Follow Ups:
I seem to recall reading that several studios got together & went to the manufacturers & said "we will release NOTHING, until there is one unified format". Since these studios controlled most of the movies that was the push to develop ONE format for DVD. Result, everybody made money & consumers could buy a single machine.
Poor quality MPEG encoders that made the laserdiscs they were replacing seem superior, non-anamorphic encodes (how stupid was that?), region coding (studios needed to control the format and what you could watch), firmware updates (Uh, like my computer?) on several models that wouldn't play big $ releases, no recording at the start (If it was going to replace the VCR, shouldn't it have been able to record?), DVD-R/+R issues when recording did come around, etc.Should I go on? Like I said, cluster-fuck.
Your points are well taken...What I am saying is that we do not have multiple DVD PLAYBACK formats because there was a decision to have only one, which is why DVD took off. This is why you can buy a movie for under $10 in some cases. The 24/96 playback that every DVD player can manage is also a result of pressure from organizations (lead by Meridian) to have a higher audio standard (which did not take off).
As a plumber once said to me, "standards are wonderful things, that is why there are so many of them!" Or you can use your more "colourful" expression.
Basically, we agree there are always conflicting standards & dumb moves. Region encoding may well fall by the wayside, given the hacks that have been developed in Europe, so they can play our Region 1 movies.
Why would nearly every CE manufacturer back Blu-ray and all but one studio say "Yes." to producing movies for the Blu-ray format?And if you truly wanted one format, why would you not back the one that has more support for movies, more support from CE manufacturers, more future options/capabilities, etc?
Ah, the oversimplifications of fanboys...> > > Why would nearly every CE manufacturer back Blu-ray < < <
Maybe they beleived the hype that Sony spews out. Maybe they are just hedging their bets. Some are also backing HD DVD.
> > > and all but one studio say "Yes." to producing movies for the Blu-ray format? < < <
BTW, that "one" happens to own something like 80 years worth of movies. Others haven't commited yet, and will wait a while before doing so. Also, while Warner is doing both formats, it is putting out more movies on HD DVD than Blu-ray-using both, but not equally.> > > And if you truly wanted one format, why would you not back the one that has more support for movies, more support from CE manufacturers, more future options/capabilities, etc? < < <
They will end up voting for the bottom line, regardless of the pie-in-the-sky promises. Whichever one (if any) the public picks, will be the one they eventually back. Not all companies are enamoured with Sony, and all are aware of its *ahem* less than stellar history with new media. Not to mention, price *will* be a factor. Joe sixpack isn't going to pay $1K for a DVD player(PS3 doesn't count), especially if it doesn't play CDs (the Sony won't).
I'm not trying to start an argument, and as I've said before, I think both will just be niche products.
The real war isn't Blu-ray Vs. HD DVD, its HD Vs. SD.
JackPS. Apparently, PS3 didn't do as well as expected at saving Sony's butt, so the demoted the "father of the playstation".
I just have more reasons to believe Blu-ray will be around after HD DVD goes away.Why do you say the PS3 doesn't count? I see it as a Blu-ray player that also plays games, rather than a game machine that also plays movies. The PS3 is going to get better and better as Sony makes changes and updates to the system/firmware. It has the potential to become a better Blu-ray player than a stand-alone player because of the technology that Sony put inside that case.
Universal will cave in due time. Next to FOX, it's my next favorite studio so I am disappointed that they don't support Blu-ray at this time. As far as Warner Bros, I don't really care for them. They are supporting Blu-ray, but holding back quality because HD DVD is limited compared to Blu-ray. Their belief that audio quality is not important really pisses me off, so they fail as a worthwhile studio for me to consider.
I think the PS3 advantage is a bit overstated. First, xbox 360's are flying off the shelf as Sony can't get their act together and ship a glitch free product on a timely basis. That means xbox is making signifigant inroads in market share. Not to mention the xbox is cheaper out the door for consumers.Second, Xbox has an HD-DVD player that is very affordable (I think 199 with a remote) that allows users to output full 1080p. Sony still can't get their resolutions straight and have made many a ps3 useless after their most recent update fiasco.
I'm not saying HD-DVD will win- heck if I know who will- but after reading your previous post re: the advantages of blu-ray and the studio support, you've certainly made a convincing argument. Just pruning your Ps3 point.
Vik
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The 50GB Vs. 30GB is a red herring. The only reason Sony needs that much space is because they are using 10 year old encoding-MPEG4. VC-1 is far more efficient,and gives a better picture in less space-they got that *painfully* long King Kong on HD DVD, and still got a stellar picture. What do you want with the other 20GB? Fill it with junky extras?
As far as studios goes, with the obvious exception of Sony (and maybe Fox?)the other studios' loyalty isn't carved in stone. HD DVDs are out selling BD discs by anywhere from 3:1 to 11:1, depending on your source. All it will take, is for the studios to look at those numbers. I suspect we'll some interesting news sometime in early '07.
FWIW, I expect to buy into Blu-ray, as soon as they meet my requirements:
1)The picture has to be as good or better than my HD-A1. This rules out the Sammy.
2)The player shouldn't cost 2X-3X the price of my HD-A1. This rules out the Panny, the (late)Pioneer, and the (very late)Sony. If I can find one *heavily* discounted(50%), I'll think about it.
3)There should be a reasonable amount of movies on BD that I want to see, with good PQ.
Time will tell.
Jack
The 50GB Vs. 30GB is a red herring. The only reason Sony needs that much space is because they are using 10 year old encoding-MPEG4. VC-1 is far more efficient,and gives a better picture in less spaceI think you mean MPEG2. Sony's initial encodings were not of high quality. However, the most recent MPEG2 encodings that are being done are much better. So much better, in fact, that some of the MPEG2 titles are considered reference (that's quite a turnaround).
And, like CE companies, Sony is not the only studio. FOX is doing their encodings in AVC and MPEG2, Warner Bros is using VC1 and MPEG2, Disney will be using AVC or VC1 for future titles, etc. And despite the better encodings that Sony is doing in MPEG2, they will switch to AVC or VC1 sometime in 2007.
-they got that *painfully* long King Kong on HD DVD, and still got a stellar picture. What do you want with the other 20GB? Fill it with junky extras?
How about uncompressed PCM or the new lossless audio codecs. Why not raise audio quality in movies to where it belongs -- on par with the picture quality. Oh wait, HD DVD is having some problems with encoding even the lossless audio codecs, which take up less space and bandwidth than uncompressed PCM, to allow for the highest quality of video as well. Extra features along with the movie? It's getting rough for HD DVD's bandwidth. Blu-ray beats it by > 10Mb/s and that's going to come into play as the formats mature.
1)The picture has to be as good or better than my HD-A1. This rules out the Sammy.
Not by much. If you don't like the Samsung, there's the Panasonic, the Sony, the Pioneer and numerous others coming in 2007.
2)The player shouldn't cost 2X-3X the price of my HD-A1. This rules out the Panny, the (late)Pioneer, and the (very late)Sony. If I can find one *heavily* discounted(50%), I'll think about it.
That Toshiba is heavily subsidized, so you can't compare prices. Yes, your wallet can do a comparison, but that's on a different level. I believe the new Toshiba "high end" player, which has the features of the Blu-ray players, is around $1k.
Want an "inexpensive" Blu-ray player? Just get a Sony "subsidized" PS3 ($499 20GB, $599 60GB). It will continue to grow as a game machine and as a Blu-ray player: it does more than the Toshiba HD-A1 now and will do even more in the future.
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