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In Reply to: I doubt it posted by Jack G on January 2, 2007 at 08:48:41:
I'm assuming that a few things will happen. Someone will take the Netflix idea to video file D/L on cable or the web. The models are Napster or iMusic. Setting up a simple screen menu for auto-download is a no-brainer.The cable providers and HBO/Showtime/etc control on-demand now and are botching it badly with crappy selection and high pricing. They seem to have no idea of how to market or exploit it.
It took $100 DVD players for the consumer to really make made the transition to DVD and that was with a huge improvement in vid quality over tape. The PQ difference between DVD and blu-ray isn't so huge to most viewers. I think on-demand service will evolve before blu-ray or HD DVD players get cheap. If Netflix is smart, they're already working on it.
It wasn't so long ago that CD sales were considered safe too. No one (in the industry) dreamed that file xfer would redefine the music industry. Then Netflix came from nowhere to virtually destroy Blockbuster and other vid renters almost overnight. Movie file xfer IS coming.
Follow Ups:
> > > The PQ difference between DVD and blu-ray isn't so huge to most viewers < < <
The difference between HD DVD and DVD on a decent set is HUGE. As more and more people buy HDTVs, it will become apprent to more people.Downloads of movies are not like downloading songs. Its alot more info. Really high speed internet will be needed-and widespread. Joe Sixpack isn't going to wait 2 hrs, to download a movie. He'll rent a disc intead. Its just not practical right now.
Jack
Didn't mean to get side-tracked on HD vs. std DVD. The issue is the media/delivery. I'm simply predicting a good quality on-demand service will be available before Blu-ray players are under $100 at Walmart. Just as with Netflix, you'll simply keep a list of your movie picks updated with the provider. Instead of disks being mailed, the files will be automatically sent to your cable box as bandwidth permits.And as with .mp3 vs .wav, people will compromise on absolute PQ for convenience, especially when the content (or perception) doesn't really demand HD. Look at the lousy PQ the networks get away with calling HD.
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