Films/DVD Asylum

No offense, but $40,000,000 isn't a big box-office opening for a summer release.

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The movie probably cost at least $100,000,000 to make and advertise (very conservative estimate), and until it hits the streets as a DVD rental it will be lucky to make it's money back. If WALL-E wasn't opening this weekend, Get Smart might have had a slim chance to recover some momentum with word of mouth interest, but the clock is always running and there's a lot of competition for screens this time of year. The rule of thumb for audience impact is around 50% for 2nd weekend box-office (not bad for a $100,000,000 opening weekend, but terrible prospects for a $39,000,000 opening). My prediction: If this coming weekend Get Smart does no more that 50% of the initial weekend's business it'll be heading out the back door for a run at the dollar houses by the second weekend in July.

I want to reiterate, this isn't a criticism of the film, just an objective take on the narrow window films have to find an audience in the summer marketplace.

Cheers,
AuPh



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