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In Reply to: RE: Well, not so fast... posted by Victor Khomenko on August 31, 2018 at 05:25:58
...I was speaking of the present, not the future. As of August 2018, what I stated is unequivocally true.
While there is no doubt that there is renewed interest in space exploration, in the US, there's a lot of "re-inventing the wheel" going on. This coupled with the transition to private sector operations brings much added risk to the ventures from the perspective of continuity. As I'm sure you're aware, Musk's Tesla automotive and solar panel operations are under great financial pressure these days. Success here is not a given. How this uncertainty might affect his Space-X operations is unknown but it's easy to envision a Tesla failure cascading into his other ventures regardless of supposed financial firewalls betw them.
Also, I believe the Boeing/Lockheed Martin venture that gave us the antiquated Russian rocket technology situation is behind schedule with their supposed USA sourced alternative.
Another major issue with the US space program is that it has become highly politicized and from what I see, rife with conflicting priorities that politics brings with it.
Bottom line is that much uncertainty remains in the present US space program as we attempt to both privatize it and make up for much lost time and lost expertise while simultaneously navigating the eternal BS of the politics that will ultimately control its direction. I'm hopeful but have low expectations.
Follow Ups:
And at present all the stuff that I mentioned is happening. Tesla and SpaceX are not exactly related, and there seems to be no issues with the launches, they are getting new contracts, including the real big deal - military launch on its new Falcon Heavy rocket.
There are several new engines (things like AR-1 and BE-4) in the works, as well as boosters, two spacecraft and even some crazy stuff like the Stratolaunch.
Now, one can, of course, feel any way he wishes about all this. I am entirely optimistic.
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