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Re: doesn't that strike you as particularly strange?

Posted by David Aiken (A) on March 19, 2007 at 01:42:36

In Reply to: doesn't that strike you as particularly strange? posted by jeromelang on March 18, 2007 at 04:50:40:

Apart from the highly significant factual error ("a disc media that can't be played on any current machine"—if true, that would have given some bite to your comments), your claims range from questionable to irrelevant in terms of impact on disc sales in any given market:

"a media that cost more than the current dvd."—I think all new media cost more than the existing standard, the price hike seems almost obligatory. That has affected sales adversely in some cases and apparently not in others. SACD costs more than CD and hasn't done too well. I seem to remember CDs costing more than LPs and CDs quite effectively supplanted the LP. A higher cost for the new media may slow its uptake but even when that occurs, there will always be some releases that simply take off regardless. It looks like Casino Royale is one of them.

" a media, who's avatar player isn't launched in europe yet."—maybe gaming isn't as big in Europe as it is in the US, or in Singapore where you are or the group that are interested in movies may not strongly overlap the group interested in gaming, so the fact that the PS3 hasn't been released may not be critical. In any event, there are obviously enough players available in the UK to support these kind of disc sales when the film is locally popular.

" in a market that's not prone to giving in to hype."—not certain how this affects the argument but it obviously isn't affecting sales.

" a movie that did ok, but not sensationally great unlike the ring or star wars trilogy. yet a disc that sell as many as this report is trying to suggest"—well, let's list the relevant factors starting with the fact that it's a film which has a very strong local market, possibly a stronger UK market than the Star Wars trilogy but maybe not as strong as LOTR. Neither the Star Wars or LOTR movies are available in high def format but Casino Royale is, and it obviously is something that appeals to the majority of UK customers who have BD players. And, as with all early adopters of new media, they're all looking for discs to show off their new hardware. That's what probably explains the rush on Casino Royale, simply the right disc at the right time in that particular market.

I don't know what the state of BD releases is in the UK but here in Australia there definitely aren't as many discs available as in the US and a lot of the discs that would interest me if I had a BD player haven't yet been released in Australia. There may be a similar situation in the UK, so the release of Casino Royale on BD there may also be regarded as a bigger thing than it would if a wider range of films were available on BD there. If the film choice is artificially restricted as it is here in Australia where a lot of films available overseas are not locally available, then the release of a film with strong local appeal is probably going to generate stronger sales than one would otherwise expect because there isn't a strong range of competing films with local appeal to provide competition and soak up some of the consumer's dollars. If the situation in the UK is similar to here with regard to releases, the distributors of Casino Royale definitely struck lucky on this point also.

I get the feeling that you're a fence sitter with respect to the new HD disc formats and have strong reservations about both HD-DVD and BD. That's fine but don't make the mistake of thinking that the majority of people agree with you. In this case the majority still haven't moved to one of the new formats, only part of the early adopter minority. That minority, however, definitely don't think like you do about the new formats and it's obvious that the UK contingent of that minority don't have the same taste in movies as you do.

PS— I don't have a high def disc player but if I were to buy one, I'd opt for BD at this stage. The reasons I haven't are the cost of the first generation machines, the fact that no BD machine available at this stage seems to handle the new lossless soundtrack formats so they don't deliver the best audio available from some films, and the lack of software that appeals to me. If the software availability picks up and prices come down enough with the second generation machines, I might be tempted later this year depending on the state of my wallet. In the meantime I'm glad to see either format do well on disc sales because if neither does, then player prices won't come down and movie availability won't keep improving. I'd like to see high def be successful, and I'd also like to see an end to the format war. Obviously my views give me a different outlook on the Casino Royale sales figures to the one you have.

David Aiken

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