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In Reply to: Never satisfied posted by Bruce from DC on May 26, 2001 at 14:01:05:
Hi,
i think the key to the effectiveness of nukes as a deterrent lies in the short length of time between 'cause' and 'effect'. If you know that after you push a button; it's a matter of minutes before they return the favor....that is disincentive.
The fact we are currently discussing limited nuclear exchanges (which i find to be improbable) blurs what has been the reality of the nuclear age. The destruction would dwarf anything that has gone before; might even make the country uninhabitable for an unknown period of time. I find it overwhelming, immoral.
Follow Ups:
I agree with you about the morality of limited nuclear exchanges.But the point has been made that perhaps there is some virtue in having an alternate response to a small scale missile launch other than massive retaliation.
When we are talking about how we survived the second half of the 20th century, what I have not heard from anyone is much analysis of the ways in which the post-Stalin USSR differed from the classic megalomanical late 20th century dictatorship, e.g. Hitler, Mao, Fidel, Saddam. It may be that MAD worked because the USSR after Stalin's death was, fundamentally, a bureaucratic totalitarian state, not some dictatorship by a wildass like Hitler. The difference is that bureaucracies are fundamentally cautious and self-presevatory. Megalomanics are not. I have zero confidence that a Hitler or a Saddam would respond to MAD in the same way that the Soviet politburo did. In fact, based on the actions of those two lunatics, I have every reason to believe that they would not. I recall that supposedly the word was passed to Saddam that if he went "biological" or nuclear, he should include the possiblity of a nuclear response from the US in his calculations. But I don't recall there being any signifcant evidence that Saddam had operational biological or nuclear weapons that he refrained from using.
And I have absolutely no idea how the US would respond to "nuclear blackmail" if its existence were made public.
Have a nice Memorial Day weekend. It is a good time to remember that our ability to discuss matters like this freely arises, in part, from the willingness of those before us to commit their lives to the freedom of future generations.
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