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In Reply to: gotta disagree. posted by Analog Scott on June 24, 2008 at 13:01:21:
The movie probably cost at least $120,000,000 to make and advertise (that's a fairly conservative estimate), and even taking into account world-wide ticket potential, until it hits the streets as a DVD rental Get Smart will be lucky to make it's money back. In fairness to the film, the fact that it opened at a bad time may have been unavoidable, but Pixar's WALL-E is likely to roll over anything up against it the next week or so.If the competition wasn't as heavy this coming weekend, who knows, Get Smart might have recovered some momentum with word of mouth interest as you've suggested. But the clock is running and theater owners want full capacity for screens, especially during summer blockbuster season. WALL-E is already getting great early reviews and the hot new action flick Wanted is getting high marks as well. I guess we'll have to wait and see what the weekend brings.
The rule of thumb for audience impact is around 50% for 2nd weekend box-office (not bad for a $100,000,000 opening weekend, but terrible prospects for a $38,700,000 opening); if a movie breaks a lot bigger than 50% it may have legs, much less than 50% and it's hasta la vista, baby.
My prediction (and it's no foregone conclusion, by any means): If this coming weekend's numbers for Get Smart aren't a lot better than 50% of the initial weekend's gross you'll be 'spying' it at the dollar houses by the second or third weekend in July, ...and Max can't afford to miss it by this much. ;O)
I want to reiterate, I'm not criticizing the film nor making a judgment call in respect to the acting, script or concept, it's just an objective take on the narrow window films have to find an audience in the summer marketplace. However, that said, if I were allowed one general observation about films with origins LIKE Get Smart (modern comedy films derived from vintage comedy television series), the track record hasn't been great.
Respectfully,
AuPh
Edits: 06/26/08
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Follow Ups
- No offense, but $40,000,000 isn't a big box-office opening for a summer release. - Audiophilander 22:25:50 06/25/08 (12)
- By this reasoning WALL-E didn't do very well. - sjb 17:32:32 06/29/08 (4)
- $63 million to $38 million? That $25 million dollar difference is substantial. - Audiophilander 11:07:09 07/01/08 (3)
- But it cost $40+ million more to make. So by your formula it didn't do well. - sjb 18:03:02 07/01/08 (2)
- The question still remains: how much better will WALL-E perform over all than Get Smart? It's just too early to tell. - Audiophilander 00:55:16 07/02/08 (1)
- I'm really just ribbing you... BUT... - sjb 10:41:49 07/02/08 (0)
- RE: No offense, but $40,000,000 isn't a big box-office opening for a summer release. - Analog Scott 19:45:49 06/26/08 (6)
- Thru Thursday it's up to $57 million - sjb 17:51:41 06/27/08 (0)
- "This movie did half it's prodction cost on the first weekend." - Including advertising expenses? - Audiophilander 22:25:40 06/26/08 (4)
- RE: "This movie did half it's prodction cost on the first weekend." - Including advertising expenses? - Analog Scott 09:57:24 06/28/08 (3)
- "My estimates did include all costs and revenue sharing." - Then I think your estimates may be a bit shy, ... - Audiophilander 02:00:51 06/29/08 (2)
- It would appear the Get Smart is exceeding my predictions - Analog Scott 11:48:54 07/01/08 (1)
- Good! Come back in a couple of weeks and we'll compare notes. (nt) - Audiophilander 00:56:21 07/02/08 (0)
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